Cheney-Rice Iran policy balancing act
One preaches a hard line as the other reaches out for direct negotiations
By Tom Raum
Associated Press Writer
CAIRO — The prospect of direct U.S.-Iranian talks on Iraq represents an important shift in relations between the two adversaries.
The development comes during Vice President Dick Cheney’s visit to the region, where he is trying to convince moderate Arab states that the U.S. will stand firm against Tehran’s encroachment. He also is seeking to build support for the delicate Iraqi government.
Cheney is only one part of a U.S. tag team. The second member, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, seems to be playing on the other side of the street.
The vice president has emphasized a hard line on Iran over the past week in stops in moderate Arab nations and talks to U.S. troops in Iraq and on an aircraft carrier in the Persian Gulf.
He has urged Arab countries to do more to help stabilize the Iraqi government and hinted that Washington would work to keep Iran from dominating the region.
Rice is leading a countervailing effort to reach out to Iran despite serious doubts whether there is anyone willing to reach back.
The two tracks crossed on Sunday.
Iran’s official news agency reported that the U.S. sought face-to-face meetings in Baghdad with the Iranians to discuss security in Iraq — and that Tehran would accept.
Cheney’s spokeswoman said after the vice president’s meeting in Cairo with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak that the U.S. was willing to talk to Iran if the discussions just deal with Iraq and were held at the “ambassadorial level.”
It is the first time Tehran has gone for the offer. But spokeswoman Lea Anne McBride noted that the idea of such talks had been floated before, in what the State Department is calling the “Baghdad channel.”
White House spokesman Gordon Johndroe later said the U.S. ambassador to Iraq, Ryan Crocker, would meet with Iranians in Baghdad in the next few weeks.
“The president authorized this channel because we must take every step possible to stabilize Iraq and reduce the risk to our troops even as our military continue to act against hostile Iranian-backed activity in Iraq,” Johndroe said while traveling with President Bush in Virginia.
At the State Department, spokesman Sean McCormack said, “This is the same channel that has been open to both sides for some time. ... But it hasn’t been used before in its most formal sense.”
Little by little, the administration seems to be bowing to political pressure and accepting a recommendation of the bipartisan Iraq Study Group to do more diplomatically to engage Iran and Syria.
“I was heartened to see that the United States and Iran are finally, evidently, going to sit down and talk. I’ve been calling for engagement with Iran for four years,” said Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, the second-ranking Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
“Iran is not going to do us any favors, but it’s in their interest to find some common denominators here,” Hagel said on “Face the Nation” on CBS.
Rice is seeking to build on a recent regional conference on Iraq that she attended with diplomats from Syria and Iran. The meeting, aimed at achieving a consensus to stabilize Iraq, did not produce the breakthrough for which Rice and others had hoped.
The secretary promised the Iraqis the U.S. would follow up in trying to engage Iran and Syria and she did not rule out talks in the future at her level. The upcoming Baghdad meeting can be seen as an intermediate step.
“One needs to be very careful about confusing dialogue with progress,” said Anthony H. Cordesman, a Middle East expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
He said huge differences remain — on nuclear weapons and long-range missiles, Iran’s growing military capability and its role in Lebanon. “There is no meaningful prospect for a ‘grand bargain,’ in spite of some well-meaning voices,” Cordesman said.
Some Arab states are concerned about predominantly Shiite Iran’s recent efforts to extend its influence, not only in Shiite-majority Iraq but among other neighbors with large Shiite populations.
In his travels, Cheney sought to reassure states such as Saudi Arabia, which is predominantly Sunni, and the moderate United Arab Emirates that the U.S. would serve as a counterbalance to ambitious Iran.
He pledged that “we’ll keep the sea lanes open” and said the U.S. would join with allies to keep Iran “from gaining nuclear weapons and dominating this region.” Cheney has emphasized links between Iran and sophisticated roadside bombs used to kill U.S. troops in Iraq.
Yet while Cheney was warmly received by Emirates leaders Saturday, Iran’s hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad arrived in Abu Dhabi on Sunday to great fanfare.
Aaron David Miller, a former State Department adviser on Mideast issues to both Republican and Democratic administrations, said the diplomatic dance between Washington and Tehran is a difficult and high-stakes one, especially for Saudi Arabia.
“The Saudis understand that if we end up with a crisis with Iran, either because the Israelis or the Americans use military force, that they’re going to be extremely vulnerable to Iranian retaliation — particularly if the Israelis use Iraqi, Saudi or Jordanian air space, which they would have to,” Miller said.
Karim Sadjadpour, an expert on Iran at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, said expectations should be “modest, given the depth of mutual mistrust and ill will which currently exists.”
Interestingly, on Sunday, it was Cheney’s staff — not the White House or State Department — that offered the first official confirmation of the upcoming talks.
That appeared to reassure some top Republicans.
Associated Press writers Anne Gearan, John Heilprin and Matthew Lee in Washington and Ben Feller in Jamestown, Va., contributed to this report.
Copyright 2005 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
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