These Tigers too hard to predict for this 'expert'

Here we are almost at the midway point of the 2007 football season, and I'm still confused.

Auburn's 3-2 record isn't a surprise, but the way the Tigers got there is.

Back-to-back losses at home to South Florida and Mississippi State and then a win at then-No. 4 Florida.

That's not exactly how I envisioned things happening.

After the loss to the lowly Bulldogs, virtually everyone — including myself — wrote off the Tigers as a team that may not even finish above .500. Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville was on a rapidly warm seat, and the Tigers' season looked as if it was going down in flames.

Then, once again, Tuberville's group finds a way to win an unwinnable game in a hostile environment. And now Auburn is possibly just a win shy of entering the top 25. Beating Vandy on Saturday could bump the Tigers into the polls, a place they began the season. A win would also give Auburn a 2-1 mark in the SEC with a huge game at Arkansas awaiting.

If the Tigers can beat Florida in The Swamp, they surely can beat Arkansas in Fayetteville, Ark. Right?

Wrong.

As I walked out of Florida's Ben Hill Griffin Stadium late Saturday night, I realized that I have lost all feeling for this team. I get paid to follow this Auburn football team closer than just about anyone, and I have no earthly idea what this squad is going to do next.

Could the Tigers lose to Vandy at home?

Could they sweep the Commodores and the Razorbacks, setting up a pivotal match in Tiger Stadium with LSU? Then, could they possible win that one?

Who the heck knows? Seriously, this team could lose its next three, maybe even four, games. Or it could win them all.

I've realized that there are two separate teams that could show up on Saturdays.

There's the terrible Auburn team that lost two of its first three games and turned the ball over 12 times. You remember, the squad whose starting quarterback threw two touchdowns and six interceptions in three games. The one that struggled to find a running game and constantly fumbled the ball away.

The other team is the one we all saw Saturday night. The one that's on a two-game winning streak. The one that's turned the ball over just twice in as many games. The team whose quarterback throws laser passes to wide-open receivers, who catch the ball. The one that has a bruising running game and a sturdy offensive line.

Which will show up? Your guess is as good as mine, and I am supposed to be the "expert."

With the return of running back Brad Lester and the positive morale surrounding Auburn, its difficult to see the former team showing up Saturday, but it could.

Here are the two main differences that we've seen statistically in Auburn's first three games compared to the last two:

Turnover ratio: In Auburn's first three games, it had a minus-8 turnover ratio, taking the ball away four times and giving it away 12 times. In the last two games, it has just two give-aways and eight take-aways for a plus-6 turnover ratio.

Third-down conversions: The Tigers converted just 32 percent (14 of 44) of their third downs in the first three games.

During the last two games they have converted 46 percent (6 of 13) of third downs.

Vanderbilt at Auburn

Saturday
11:30 a.m.
WZDX-54