Miles’ luck could run out against Tide

TUSCALOOSA — A month ago, it was a slam dunk. No questions asked. LSU was going to beat Alabama on Nov. 3.

The Tigers were rolling, undefeated and getting ready to play Florida. The Tide had lost to Florida State and was reeling.

Then something happened. More importantly, Florida happened. That was the “classic” showdown where Les Miles went for it on five fourth downs, converting all five in the victory.

I sat and watched, both in awe and stupor. How could the guy go for it on fourth down five times — and be lucky enough to convert all five times?

Follow that up with a loss to Kentucky, and then maybe the dumbest final play in the history of great winning plays to beat Auburn, and here the Tigers are, getting ready for the big showdown against Alabama and Nick Saban, the former LSU coach.

Saban vs. Miles. Saban vs. LSU nation. Saban vs. Iraq.

We might as well throw that last one in there, too. Sometimes it seems like the world is lined up against this guy.

The feelings I harbored a month ago are no longer there. This won’t be an easy victory for LSU. In fact, it’s tough to predict a victory for the Tigers, partly because of Miles.

Say what you want about Florida being the defending national champions, but LSU was more talented, at home and should have won by more than a final-minute touchdown run.

The Kentucky Wildcats? They’re not bad, but LSU’s loss that day should’ve been a comfortable win.

How about Auburn? They were playing well heading into Baton Rouge, but have you ever been to a night game at Tiger Stadium?

It’s easily one of the best home field advantages in the country. LSU could have gone 0-3 in those games, and through some bit of fate, wound up 2-1. And in the two victories, the Tigers needed some kind of magnificent last-minute drive — I must remind you, at home — to win the game.

It has been tough for many to warm up to Saban. He is only a human, not Superman like some want to believe. His 2003 national championship at LSU is still disputed — remember how Southern California won the AP poll?

But you can’t deny he’s a good football coach.

Tennessee might not be the UT of old, but to lose five players the day before the game, three of which are core guys, and to still mangle the Vols 41-17? That speaks volumes to Saban’s coaching ability. This team is not exactly long on talent, and he has them controlling their own destiny in the SEC West.

Miles, on the other hand? He has done an excellent job since he arrived at Baton Rouge. In his three years as LSU’s coach, he has hauled in top recruiting class after top recruiting class.

He has coached his teams to a 29-5 record. You also can make a sound argument that around last year’s bowl season, the Bayou Bengals were playing better football than any team in the country.

But you can’t help but feel like something just isn’t right. Something is missing from his team.

Maybe it’s the stigma that follows every coach after he replaces a legend. Ray Perkins went 32-15-1 and couldn’t compare to Paul “Bear” Bryant.

At Florida, Ron Zook defeated Florida State in Tallahassee, something Steve Spurrier never did. But he was shown the door after three decent seasons.

Miles has been successful and amassed the kind of talent to continue a joyful ride as Tigers coach. But these past few games have shown sound evidence that he is no Saban.

Not even the best gambler can stay lucky for that long. Remember, there is a reason casinos are profitable ventures.

Miles will come to Tuscaloosa for one more game of roulette. Will this be the time he plays the wrong number?